A mild recession

That's what economists from the Minneapolis Fed diagnose in an article titled "Recessions in perspective". Comparing the current data on unemployment and production to those of past recessions of various degrees of severity, they show that the current recession in the US follows quite closely the past paths of mild recessions, especially regarding the evolution of production. Unemployment path is a bit closer to average.

That's also was Chicago economist Casey Mulligan has been saying repeatedly on his blog "Supply and demand (in that order)" since the beginning of the crisis.

Thanks to Alex Tabarrok ("Marginal revolution") for mentioning the paper.