mardi 15 décembre 2009

Political Short-Termism

Mojmir Hampl , vice-governor of the Czech National Bank and a member of the EU’s economic and financial committee, chastises politicians in a Wall Street Journal opinion column for “cheap lecturing of the markets in may countries around the world (…) when it is easy to see that the advocates of such lessons lack credibility in the subjects on which they preach”.

While the political elite in most of the advanced democratic countries have been lecturing the financial markets about their irresponsible, myopic and reckless behavior, it has hardly been offering a textbook example of care for long-term goals stretching beyond terms of office and political cycles. There are always elections on the horizon, be they party, local, national or pan-European, and long-term thinking is the exception.

Whereas “there have been few times so good for public budget management as the “great moderation” years of solid growth and low inflation that preceded the present crisis, (…) the vast majority of EU countries ran substantial budget deficits (…)

It is ironic that in the current EU, the new regulatory measures are being written and promoted primarily by the large Western countries whose financial systems proved to be the most vulnerable in the crisis. Just imagine how it would look if new financial regulations in Central and Eastern Europe were written mostly by Latvians.”

My conclusion: one should listen more often to the Czechs, they really understand public choice theory.

Read the paper here .



lundi 14 décembre 2009

Big Banks Get Bigger


Felix Salmon (Reuters Blog) publishes the above chart that comes from the Congressional Oversight Panel’s latest report.

Read his comment here .

Samuelson and Random Asset Prices

"Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly" is my favorite Samuelson article. The title tells all, the theory is concise and powerful.

But the question that comes next is: can we identify prices that are not properly anticipated and estimate the biases in anticipations?

Read the paper here . Hat tip to Tyler Cowen (Marginal Revolution).

dimanche 13 décembre 2009

Paul Samuelson Dies at 94



A really superior mind who durably transformed the field of economics.

Read a complete New York Times bio here .

samedi 12 décembre 2009

Tracking the Recession and Coming Recovery




Casey Mulligan has developed an intriguing real business cycle model which has « no adverse productivity shocks, no shocks to capital markets (these variables just react to events in the labor market), no monetary policy, and no fiscal stimulus. Simply put: I view this as a one (type of) shock recession, and the labor market is ground zero for that shock.
This version of the model has a labor market distortion that gets progressively worse for the two years (2008 & 2009), at which point it partly reverses itself although never getting back to pre-recession levels.”


OK all this seems extremely difficult to believe as a description of the current recession, but surprisingly the model’s simulations do track observed evolutions in labor usage, consumption, labor productivity and investment rather well (see Mulligan’s blog “Supply and demand”, "What Happens Next? Part II", December 9).

Seven Lean Years for the US ?

Mark Thoma (University of Oregon and Economist’s View) calculates that, from the experience of previous US recessions, seven years could be necessary for the unemployment rate to return to five percent. The process could be accelerated, he believes, by adequate economic policies.

Note that the current unemployment rate is quite similar to the one reached during the 1981-82 recession (10.8 percent).

Read his paper here .

mercredi 9 décembre 2009

Two Real Estate Booms and Busts Compared

Eugene N. White compares the 1920s and the recent episode in an NBER working paper here . He concludes that the elements absent in the 1920s were federal deposit insurance, the “Too Big To Fail” doctrine, and federal policies to increase mortgages to higher risk homeowners. These factors combined induced risk-taking that was crucial to the eruption of the recent financial crisis.