Thursday, July 30, 2009

End of the recession? Erratum

The figure on the preceding post represents the Aruoba-Dieblod-Scotti Business Conditions Index computed for the US economy at the Philadelphia Fed.

Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low- frequency information and stock and flow data.

According to this index the recession began in the last quarter of 2007, and it could be finished apparently by early 2010, barring a “W” episode that could prolong it a bit.

The text under the graph was intended to present the same index in perspective, first from 2000 to present, and then from 1960 to present. Both graphs are available on Econbrowser or from the Philadelphia Fed here .

Hat tip to Econbrowser and apologies to the readers for the mistaken post.

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