-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (3/1/1960-7/18/2009)
Business Conditions
Note: We construct the ADS Index using the latest data available as of July 23, 2009. This includes (1) initial jobless claims through the week ending July 18, 2009,
(2) payroll employment through June 2009, (3) industrial production through June 2009, (4) real personal income through May 2009, (5) real manufacturing and trade sales
through April 2009, and (6) real GDP through the first quarter of 2009. Gray shading indicates historical NBER-designated recessions. Yellow shading indicates the most recent
recession, designated by the NBER to have started in December 2007 but not yet (as of the date of creation of the figure) designated by the NBER to have ended.