The Eurozone Double Dip is Almost Here

That’s what Edouard Harrison* writes in Seeking Alpha.

Excerpt:

“The euro acts as a gold standard for individual euro zone members. As with the gold standard, euro zone members abdicated currency sovereignty in order to benefit from the price stability of the currency tie. Individual euro zone sovereign states are now currency users with limited policy space, meaning that a recession must be met with the deflationary response of pro-cyclical fiscal policy (budget cuts and tax increases).

Over the medium-term, this decreases demand and reduces economic growth. In a credit crisis, when private sector debt levels are high, debt deflationary forces of reduced output can lead to falling asset prices, debt distress, deflation and depression.

I see the procyclicality as one of the structural flaws of the euro zone; there is no federal agent to do counter procyclical budgeting during a recession. Thus, the euro zone business cycle will invariably be volatile, making current account imbalances a lightening rod for intra-European recrimination.

(…)

In the past few months, I have become negative on the euro zone’s chances of survival. I no longer believe the political imperatives for the euro zone will be enough to overcome the politics of this next downturn.”

* Edward Harrison is the founder of the blog Credit Writedowns (www.creditwritedowns.com) and is a finance specialist at Global Macro Advisors. Previously, Edward was a strategy and finance executive at Deutsche Bank, Bain, and Yahoo. He started his career as a diplomat and speaks German, Dutch, Swedish, Spanish and French. Edward holds an MBA from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

My comment: Neat and concise summary.