Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Green Shoots: V or U ?

Up 7.6 % since the start of 2009, does the rise of the Rogers International Commodity Prices Index validate a V-shaped economic recovery asks Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor’s Newsletter?

“Even if GDP growth around the world has bottomed, growth may continue to be negative or sluggish until 2011. As such, commodity price gains might reveal a false sign of economic recovery – and so might the recent spate of (stock) market rallies (…) and inflows into emerging markets. (…) Commodity prices could snap back to reality before resuming a more moderate uptrend in line with a U-shaped global growth path.”

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